BULLION:
This week is leaving to be vital for gold prices, on the back of the financial releases from the US and Europe. As of the derivatives point of vision, prices and open interest has declined while volumes have augmented, which point out that investors are short selling. Consequently, gold prices may witness a downtrend in this week. China’s state-owned mining company has supposed that mining fabrication is anticipated to increase in the near-term quarter, which would boost the supply of gold in line with the present demand. This strength compel gold prices this week. From the euro-zone, the ECB Chief’s press conference which power increase the instability in the shared currency amidst concerns of a slow economic recovery due to the record high unemployment rate will be closely observe. From the economic data frontage, German manufacturing and services data valor improve, which could support the communal currency and support gold prices. The euro-zone’s retail sale might augment, which would extend the gains in gold prices on the back of the positive reception in the euro. The ECB’s rate decision and the deposit rate might remain unchanged, which would slightly support the euro. Gold prices might remain on a higher note. On the other hand, the gains in the euro might be offset by a advanced dollar index, which capacity pressurize gold prices at the end of this week.
Throughout the US conference, the economic calendar might stay behind short as the markets would linger closed on Wednesday and Thursday due to the Independence Day celebrations. The markets are expected to open on a positive note on Monday as ISM numbers and factory orders might hoist which possibly will support the dollar and pressurize gold prices. In addition, the nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to increase along with the fall in the unemployment rate which would sustain the dollar and weigh down on gold prices. Consequently, the ECB Chief’s press conference and US economic data, which might create volatility in gold prices, will be directly watched.
Silver prices this week may spectator volatility due to the economic releases from Europe and the US. The ECB chief’s press conference will be intimately watched, next to with the US markets post the Independence Day holiday. The German and euro-zone PMI industrialized numbers are expected to get better, which would bear silver prices as it is used as an industrial metal. The euro-zone’s unemployment rate and manufacturer price index might stay negative, which would pressurize silver prices, backed by the euro. On the other hand, other economic releases from the euro-zone might support the shared currency as well as silver prices. On or after the US session, the ISM manufacturing and factory orders might get better, which could hold up silver prices on the back of an augment in the demand for the goods. Consequently, instability in silver prices could be seen on the back of the increase in the developed numbers in this week. On the whole, we suggest remaining on the selling part in both silver and gold.
Mcx Gold Aug Weekly Levels:
Gold Resistance on Upper Side at 26789-27980-29170
Gold Support on Lower Side at 24619-23640-22450
Trend Deciding Point at 25810
Mcx Silver Sep Weekly Levels:
Silver Resistance on Upper Side at 42117-43446-44775
Silver at Support on Lower Side at 39142-37496-36167
Trend Deciding Level at 40471
BASE METALS:
Previous Week the metals group remained totally diverged at the LME and MCX India. The rupee witnessed record decline, touching a high of 61.15 against the dollar in the futures market and limiting the downside in base metals at the MCX India. In excess of the last two days of the week, the LME base metals invigorated from the lows. On the other hand, a grateful for rupee limited any gains at the MCX. Generally, copper, aluminum and nickel remained weak and prices knock out while lead and zinc gained 1.38% and 0.62% in that order at the LME on a weekly source.
This week, the markets be likely to stay behind slightly weak at the beginning as the Chinese manufacturing numbers should decline below 50, indicating slimming down. Since the week progresses, the markets ought to keenly watch the US non-farm payrolls and the rate decisions from the ECB and the BOE. Additional, the euro-zone’s retail sales and US factory orders should also get better amidst improving consumer spending and a better housing marketplace, which ought to support the pullback in LME base metals prices. Basically, the metals pack remained diverged as lead and zinc gained while copper, nickel and aluminum matured lower. On present, the stocks of lead and zinc have declined amidst elevated warrants while copper, nickel and aluminum have remained reasonably higher and should continue to limit the recovery in prices. In this week, we anticipate the LME base metals prices to revive slightly, backed by positive data and improving demand-supply activities. (Baltic Dry Bulk Material index has also gained by 14.02% in the last week) moreover, we anticipate the Western economies to show improvement and, better releases might increase the expectation that the Central Banks might scale back the asset purchase or accommodative financial policy. This is supposed to continue to limit the recovery in base metals. In general, higher supply and a rising dollar should limit gains in the long run and hence, we do not recommend that investors initiate buying in this week. Momentum traders or high-risk traders might buy at lows and exit their position by the end of the week. Because the next week commences with the beginning of the month and quarter, we anticipate Chinese buyers (generally aggressive in nature) to support minor gains in prices. On the other hand, this recovery might only remain for the short-term as selling at the higher levels might be continued. Record high unemployment in the euro-zone and slowing Chinese manufacturing is likely to keep the downside trend in base metals intact in this week. In general, we suggest that investors enter long positions in lead and zinc. We also expect nickel, aluminum and copper to remain under-performers on the back of higher supplies and low demand.
Mcx Copper Aug Weekly Levels:
Copper Resistance on Upper Side at 415-423-431
Copper Support on Lower Side at 399-390-382
Trend Deciding Point at 407
Mcx Nickel July Weekly Levels:
Nickel Resistance on Upper Side at 839-854-869
Nickel Support on Lower Side at 811-798-783
Trend Deciding Point at 826
Energy:
We anticipate oil to continue to gain during the current summer season in the US. In detail, the refinery utilization rates are high. Refiners improve operating rates to 90.2 percent, the uppermost level in 2013. In addition, we are observer favorable economic data coming in from the US and Europe, which are approaching oil prices higher. Inventories at Oklahoma, the liberation point for WTI futures diminish to 48.60 million barrels, the lowest level since December 2012. On the other hand, the inventory levels increased by 1.40 percent last week to 49.3 million and, the whole US inventory levels rose to 394.1 million. One more important factor that has pushed the demand for WTI oil higher against the Brent is the oversupply in the final. Brent’s premium over WTI narrowed as the European benchmark fell 7.1 percent in this quarter. The Buzzard field in the North Sea returned to just about full pumping rates of about 208,000 barrels a day about a week after a halt on June 6 due to an equipment failure. We consider the essential demand for gasoline should remain higher in the near-term, prop up by the US summer season. Consequently, we ought to see crude oil stocks in Oklahoma in the forthcoming days to refuse while the refinery and capacity utilization rates will keep on to rise, at the bottom of WTI oil prices to trade elevated. On the other hand, oil and other markets next week might remain anxious ahead of key economic let go. Beginning the US, at the same time as a few such as trade balance, payroll numbers and unemployment rate would be key. We anticipate the trade balance to show a decline in deficit while payroll numbers should rise for nonfarm payrolls and the private sector, barring the industrialized segment. In addition, we anticipate the unemployment rate to either stay at 7.60 percent or decline to 7.50 percent. On the whole, the data from the US are predictable to rise, which might support higher oil demand. On the other hand, we are not concerned that a rising dollar might restrict oil demand because the current scenario in oil is rife with the built-in consumption data. Nevertheless, gains could be limited due to the rise in oil prices. present are couples of events taking place in this week, out of which the ECB and BOE’s interest rate decisions would be one of the few factors that investors across the world must be waiting for. Therefore, the euro, which has been declining for the past two weeks, should continue to lose early this week, although it might recoup its losses in the later part of the week. On the other hand, we at Profitkrishna research will be closely watching the ECB and BOE policy decisions. There are few data coming in from China, which are likely to depict poor industrialized activity which might lead to a decline in oil demand from the second largest consumer. In attendance are few data expected from Japan and India). From the above examination, we consider the dollar index might continue to rise until early this week. The euro should rebound from its lows and equities should carry on to gain, all of which should have a positive impact on Crude Oil. So, WTI oil futures are expected to hit the $100 mark this week. Hence, we advocate buying from the lower levels.
Mcx Crude Oil July Weekly Levels:
Crude Resistance on Upper Side at 5897-6031-6164
Crude Support on Lower Side at 5600-5437-5303
Trend Deciding Level at 5734
Mcx Natural Gas July Weekly Levels:
Natural Gas Resistance on Upper Side at 227-239-250
Natural Gas Support on Lower Side at 208-200-189
Trend Deciding Level at 220
To know more about Commodity, visit – http://www.profitkrishna.com/our-services.aspx
THIS WEEK ECONOMIC DATA TO RELEASE:
| Date Time | Region | Event | Period | Survey | Prior |
| 28-30 JUN | CH | Leading Index | May | — | 99.8 |
| 7/1/2013 6:30 | CH | Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 50.1 | 50.8 |
| 7/1/2013 7:15 | CH | HSBC Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| 7/1/2013 10:30 | JN | Vehicle Sales (YoY) | Jun | — | -7.30% |
| 7/1/2013 10:30 | IN | HSBC-Markit Manufacturing PMI | Jun | — | 50.1 |
| 7/1/2013 13:25 | GE | PMI Manufacturing | Jun F | 48.7 | 48.7 |
| 7/1/2013 13:30 | EC | PMI Manufacturing | Jun F | 48.7 | 48.7 |
| 7/1/2013 14:00 | UK | PMI Manufacturing | Jun | 51.4 | 51.3 |
| 7/1/2013 14:00 | UK | Net Consumer Credit | May | 0.6B | 0.5B |
| 7/1/2013 14:00 | UK | M4 Money Supply (MoM) | May | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 7/1/2013 14:30 | EC | Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate | May | 12.30% | 12.20% |
| 7/1/2013 19:30 | US | Construction Spending MoM | May | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 7/1/2013 19:30 | US | ISM Manufacturing | Jun | 50.5 | 49 |
| 7/1/2013 19:30 | US | ISM Prices Paid | Jun | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| 01-05 JUL | JN | Official Reserve Assets | Jun | — | $1250.2B |
| 7/2/2013 14:00 | UK | PMI Construction | Jun | 51.2 | 50.8 |
| 7/2/2013 14:30 | EC | Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) | May | -0.20% | -0.60% |
| 7/2/2013 19:30 | US | Factory Orders | May | 2.00% | 1.00% |
| 7/3/2013 2:30 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | Jun | 15.45M | 15.24M |
| 7/3/2013 2:30 | US | Domestic Vehicle Sales | Jun | 12.00M | 11.95M |
| 7/3/2013 6:30 | CH | Non-manufacturing PMI | Jun | — | 54.3 |
| 7/3/2013 7:15 | CH | HSBC Services PMI | Jun | — | 51.2 |
| 7/3/2013 10:30 | IN | HSBC-Markit Services PMI | Jun | — | 53.6 |
| 7/3/2013 13:25 | GE | PMI Services | Jun F | 51.3 | 51.3 |
| 7/3/2013 13:30 | EC | PMI Services | Jun F | 48.6 | 48.6 |
| 7/3/2013 13:30 | EC | PMI Composite | Jun F | 48.9 | 48.9 |
| 7/3/2013 14:00 | UK | PMI Services | Jun | 54.5 | 54.9 |
| 7/3/2013 14:30 | EC | Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) | May | 0.30% | -0.50% |
| 7/3/2013 16:30 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | 28-Jun | — | -3.00% |
| 7/3/2013 17:45 | US | ADP Employment Change | Jun | 160K | 135K |
| 7/3/2013 18:00 | US | Trade Balance | May | -$40.2B | -$40.3B |
| 7/3/2013 18:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 29-Jun | 345K | 346K |
| 7/3/2013 18:00 | US | Continuing Claims | 22-Jun | 2965K | 2965K |
| 7/3/2013 19:30 | US | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Jun | 54 | 53.7 |
| 7/4/2013 5:20 | JN | Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | 28-Jun | — | -¥1187.5B |
| 7/4/2013 5:20 | JN | Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | 28-Jun | — | ¥13.9B |
| 7/4/2013 5:20 | JN | Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 28-Jun | — | -¥1047.3B |
| 7/4/2013 5:20 | JN | Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | 28-Jun | — | ¥171.2B |
| 7/4/2013 16:30 | UK | BOE ANNOUNCES RATES | 4-Jul | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 7/4/2013 16:30 | UK | BOE Asset Purchase Target | Jul | 375B | 375B |
| 7/4/2013 17:15 | EC | ECB Announces Interest Rates | 4-Jul | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 7/4/2013 17:15 | EC | ECB Deposit Facility Rate | 4-Jul | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7/4/2013 | UK | New Car Registrations (YoY) | Jun | — | 11.00% |
| 7/5/2013 15:30 | GE | Factory Orders MoM (sa) | May | 1.20% | -2.30% |
| 7/5/2013 18:00 | US | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Jun | 165K | 175K |
| 7/5/2013 18:00 | US | Change in Private Payrolls | Jun | 175K | 178K |
| 7/5/2013 18:00 | US | Change in Manufacture Payrolls | Jun | 0K | -8K |
| 7/5/2013 18:00 | US | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.50% | 7.60% |
| 7/5/2013 18:00 | US | Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp | Jun | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 7/5/2013 18:00 | US | Change in Household Employment | Jun | — | 319 |