New Home Sales and Commodity Intraday Tips

Crude oil for active April expiry contract at NYMEX finished on a weaker note with the commodity falling near a percent to $101.80 per barrel mark. In the Indian markets, we saw crude prices inching lower to Rs 6300 per barrel mark, slumping by over 1.5% as traders anticipated moderate gains in the Indian Rupee on Wednesday following the NDF markets late evening.

In important commodity relate cues post the closure of our markets, the weekly inventory report from the API was released. As per the news updates, US crude supplies rose 822,000 barrels while total curded inventories fell by 473,000 barrels for the week ended February 21 to 362.5 million. In other product related segments, distillate stocks fell moderately by 693,000 barrels whereas gasoline stocks slipped 314,000 barrels. Cushing area stocks continued to see fall in inventories with the last week decline standing at 1.07 million barrels. While the markets estimates show a better fall in distillate and crude stocks from the DoE report today evening, we reiterate our stance that we are not expecting any major positivism to come out of the inventory report.

In other updates from the regulatory front in the US yesterday, the government issued emergency rules requiring extensive tests on crude oil moving by rail amidst a slew of mishaps during the past couple of months. While the overall impact of the rule is still to be checked, we feel it might create some imbalance against normal supply of crude oil from production centers to the refining units of the country. The above though is backed by the fact that crude shipments from rail which were almost nonexistent a few years ago now play a significant role in transportation of the commodity in the US.

Coming back to the cues in Intra-day, we had a selling view into the black liquid yesterday following the weaker set of cues from the weather department in the country. While there are no significant changes in the climate predictions from the US CPC over last two days; the commodity is seen further weighed by the mixed set of inventory report from the API. We continue to hold our bearish outlook into the commodity though feel the scale of drop might remain constricted after the decent drop yesterday. Traders are advised to initiate short on pullbacks for the day. Locally, we could see a higher opening as we adjust with the extra loss made during yesterday’s trade

Global Market Analysis: Asian equities are trading on a mixed note following the moderately weaker closing at the US equities overnight. The Dollar index fell modestly yesterday while currently traded little changed near the 80.20 level as disappointing set of cues from the consumer confidence and the regional manufacturing numbers weighed on the greenback. Into the other pairs, Euro is flat near 1.3740 while GBP is hovering around 1.6675 marks. Amongst economic cues, we have a number of readings from the UK though would be looking at the housing numbers from the US in the evening session which might show extension of broad weakness in the sector.

In energy, we had a selling view in crude yesterday on back of anticipated mixed set of inventory numbers and also following the weaker set of weather updates from the US Climate Prediction centre. While the API inventory numbers had failed to boost any positivism, we once again reiterate our view of no fireworks in the DOE report expected today evening. Cumulatively we are holding bearish stance though might not see a similar strong selling performance as been the case yesterday.

Commodity Intraday Tips

SELL CPO MCX MAR BELOW 581 SL 583.5 TGT 576

SELL CRUDE OIL MCX MAR APR NEAR 6325-6335 SL 6375 TGT 6275-6240

BUY GOLD MCX APR 30190 SL 30020 TGT 30350

Today Economic Data Indicators: