Leading Index and Commodity Trading Tips

MCX Commodity Gold and silver too expanded weakness yesterday where in Spot Gold fell around 1percentage. Additionally, we are seeing losses getting extended in early session today with Comex Gold opened over 1percentage loss after holiday. Weaker oil prices which makes a case for further subdued inflation is hitting the Bullion complex most whereas EU economic data today on YoY CPI is also seen impacting further weakness in the commodity today. Asian equities are largely positive today and USDX adding marginally would put negative pressure on Gold in intraday. While no other major developments are due today as we lack any major data from US, movement may be constricted and thus recommend selling the yellow metal for small targets today. Bullion markets at Comex were shut yesterday with the commodity only trading for a limited time at electronic session. Though Spot Bullion wherein both gold and silver fell and the same aspect reflected in Indian markets at MCX Indian MCX Gold for Feb settlement finished lower by0.6percentage to Rs 26630 per 10 gms

Global Market View: Asian markets are trading on a mixed to moderately positive note this morning while US markets remained closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. The release of the statement from OPEC in which they have not announced any cut in production triggered a steep fall in the oil price whereas effect was visible on some other non-agri commodities as well. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a negative note with respect to the dollar. US dollar index has respected in a low quantity trading session the recent past. US dollar index has pulled itself above the 88 height and is currently balanced at 88.15 levels.

Economic data from the UK, German and EU economies would have a considerable impact in their respective currencies in today’s session, though no major data is due from the US. We also have Indian GDP and fiscal deficit to be released today which may make INR volatile and thus impact trading in some MCX commodities.

We should see lower opening for silver commodity today as MCX follows extended losses in US markets as of Asian electronic opening. Though markets lack momentum today, bias continues to be weak as in the case with oil. Onto the Ratio front, we expected moderate positivity over base metal could support its outperformance over gold however the same went wrong for last two days. Advice traders avoiding fresh positions in Ratio and better to wait for weekly closing to take call. Silver too depicted a similar move though as of opening rate today, we are seeing losses getting wider for the high beta commodity which has moved lower by around 3percentage to$16 per ounce mark Silver March MCX finished with a near 2percentage loss yesterday following international spot and closed at Rs 36700 per Kg.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Gold Feb Mcx below 26650 SL 26780 Tgt 26550

Sell Silver Mar Mcx below 36600 SL 37000 Tgt 36100

Consumer Confidence and Commodity Intraday Tips

Mcx Crude Commodity Trading once again shifting towards a bearish view which has been there with the commodity for more than couple of months from now. The OPEC meeting is programmed on this Thursday and in spite of talks about possible cut, oil price cut down at equally Brent and WTI. Cues from OPEC members too not supporting any positive move in the commodity as Saudi Arabia oil minister yesterday told reporters, it’s not the first time the oil market has been oversupplied, indirectly hinting at a case that markets need not be panicking about the situation. We believe cut in output would be moderate in the range of 500,000 BPD and insufficient as equated to current market supplies further supporting negativity. In fact our suggested resistance levels failed to breach so unless these levels are not cleared we shall not turn into fresh buy. For intraday we may remain short while need to observe how oil racts to the US data and accordingly shall take a fresh stance. Note, we have the weekly petroleum inventory number from the US tomorrow and survey suggest that the stocks for oil and products arrising meagerly which may also have some sort of negative impact in the oil prices.

Global Market View: First day of the week is past we saw mostly stable day while the global equities continued to trade positive and major currencies remained steady except that the Japanese Yen and its counterparts have been trading massively lower. In fact now many are talking about trade idea pertaining to carry trade where in one can take a long in Nikkei and soon short in USDJPY. Also, we may have a scenario where in one can take short in USDJPY and long in Gold. Nonetheless, this holds for a pretty long term. As far as today is concerned we are seeing the Asian markets trading positive this morning and global currencies are steady.

Economic data: German QoQ GDP and the US GDP, Personal consumption and house price index. The US GDP number is to be tracked critically which is expected to be lower from the previous quarter. If such scenario develops then some of the USD denominated assets may get hit. Talking about commodities, we had a very balanced day for bullion and the same are seen trading in a very confined range. However, both energy oil and base metal softened a tad. We could say the USD index remaining positive close to 88.40 is a threat to wholesome sector

Mcx Natural gas Commodity Trading got a good boost last week as on forecast that temperatures would stay below normal in the eastern US during the last week of Nov and mostly in initial Dec is losing out the same as fresh forecasts call for largely warmer temperatures in the country in Dec. warmer temperatures along with persistently higher production levels in the country is taking a beating on prices. e hold ranged view in NG today as volatility is likely to remain higher in near-term. Natural gas opened with 5percentage cut yesterday as the so called arctic blast was seen giving way for warmer to normalized temperatures in December month. While the commodity closed lower, it managed to half its losses and finished 2.5percentage down to $4.15 per MMBTU mark whereas Indian MCX NG shut lower by 4.4percentage Rs 254 level.

Commodity Intraday Tips

Sell Copper Mcx Nov below 411 SL 415 Tgt 406

Sell Crude Mcx Dec below 4770 SL 4820 Tgt 4700

US Housing Starts and Commodity Market Tips

Mcx Gold Commodity Trading has lost modest weight in morning session with gold prices at electronic session trading lower by half a percentage to $1192 per ounce. While we had a maintained a largely momentary trade outlook for Bullion yesterday, they turned higher with markets recording strong gains in especially Gold. We believe, Gold may continue to trade ranged with moderate weak bias continuing as mixed equities and slightly gains in USD during early session may act as a resistance to the commodity. We feel USDX may see further gains building though as we have the FED minutes release late night (IST) today with volatility too expected to be higher. With overall bias for the commodity continuing to be lower, we maintain selling stance in the commodity today. Locally, INR should be watched for any kind of intraday adjustments.

Global Market View: Markets witnessed hay wire movements as per different asset classes were concerned with Bullion managed decent gains, equities too added weight though base metals and in energy prices inched lower. In terms of currencies, USDX was largely ranged though moved modestly in loss during late evening trade on Tuesday as Euro currency stepped up though losses in the US Dollar were stemmed amidst weakness in the GBP and the Yen. In major economic variable yesterday, positive surprise came in the form of positive Euro area ZEW expectation that came much higher than the market expectations pushing the Euro currency above the 1.25 mark. In major developments today, we are seeing Asian equities trade on a mixed note though Yen moved to fresh seven year low around 117 against the USD after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called an early election and postponed a sales-tax increase. Today morning, Bullion and Crude are down though metals are mixed to tad in the green.

As said in above write-up, we believe while both metals may traded on a weaker today, moderate negative view in most base metals and weaker Chinese property market data today morning makes a case for weaker industrial commodity and may put more pressure on silver commodity. So on one side, we recommend naked sell call in silver traders can also plan Gold Silver Ratio buying. We re-iterate that risk in the ratio or naked call may be a bit high now as we have FED Monetary minutes to be released. Silver added weight along with gold though weaker Base metals pushed the commodity to trim gains by closing time. Silver Comex Dec after touching $16.40 per ounce at once point of time, higher by just finished 0.7percentage to $16.17 an ounce whereas Silver Dec MCX added 0.5percentage to Rs 35800.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Crude Mcx Dec below 4670 SL above 4700 Tgt 4600

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 36000 SL above 36500 Tgt 35500

PPI Final Demand MoM and Commodity Trading Tips

Mcx Bullion Trading market as we are seeing no major change in any way Bullion prices are trading with early morning cues too stable. This morning gold Comex at electronic session is hovering near the $1186 mark. Markets are trading range bound and possibly looking for some sort of critical triggers to move either side. We have the regular data coming today so likely that markets would remain in the same zone. Regarding the direction and trend is concerned; the bearish trend is not over yet though as said in our weekly report, Fed Minutes outcome late night tomorrow would be closely watched. While commodity bias remaining on sell side, those holding shorts or like to initiate fresh shorts are advised to place stop loss above $1200 for gold while accordingly maintain SL in MCX platform too.

Gold imports zoomed 280% to $4.17 Bln in Oct widening the trade deficit. Higher demand could be due to lower prices and festival season though it didn’t had any major impact on pricing of international gold. Also, there are reports that officials from BI and Finance Ministry met last week to review our gold import policy. In case we see some fresh curbs over imports, probably local Gold spot premium would once again increase in near-term while similar impact can be seen on MCX near month Gold. Gold had a very shallow movement yesterday with the commodity trading in a small $10 per ounce range for whole day before shutting shop at $1183 an ounce, lower by 0.2% on Monday. In India, Gold MCX December contract settled with a marginally higher loss of 0.5% to Rs 26330 per 10 Gms.

Gold and silver are both trading in a consolidation phase and likely that broad movement might continue in the same manner for a day or two. We have some important data variables from EU region today whereas in the US PPI number would be closely watched. While ZEW could see mercurial movement, we are not very optimistic over US PPI as industrial commodities have remained subdued lately. On that note, we also feel silver could be a better bet to sell today as equated to gold.

Silver commodity followed a near similar trajectory on Monday as with gold though its high beta helped traders manage decent money out of sell strategy Silver Comex Dec finished 1.6% lower to $16.05 an ounce whereas Silver Dec MCX fell 1.1% to Rs 35630 per Kg

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 36530 SL 37250 TP 35800

Buy Nickel Mcx Nov above 965 SL 954 TP 985

Sell Crude Mcx Nov below 4645 SL 4675 TP 4585

Labor Market Conditions and Commodity Market Tips

Mcx Gold Commodity Market Trading were extending their Friday’s gains wherein weaker US Employment numbers aid a good pullback in Bullion which. As said in our weekly report, US Employers added at a lesser than expected rate though if we look at the overall set of data, we believe movement in Gold last Friday was a bit exaggerated as on the economic side, September month Jobs data was revised higher to 256K. This was appended with the fact that labor force participation increase, further bolstering the positivity about the health of US economy. We had seen the Chinese inflation number today which didn’t provided any major boost though weaker USDX is supporting moderate gains in the complex early morning. We maintain bearish bias though advice selling only on pullbacks for small profits as no major data is due in latter half. Gold prices once again saw pressure continuing for larger part of the week wherein Dec contract at Comex slumped to a fresh four year low near the $1130 per ounce mark. However weaker to mixed US Jobs data and Gold’s oversold nature aided good pullback to the metal on Friday wherein it managed a negative weekly closing by just 0.15percentage to $1170 per ounce. In India, Gold MCX December contract slide lower to Rs 25165 level at one point of time while finally finished weaker by 0.75percentage to Rs 25930 per 10 Grams.

Global Market View for today as Asian equity markets are trading on a mixed note with weaker Chinese PPI number and mixed closing in US markets hurting the trading direction post the subdued headline Non-farm payrolls data which showed an Job addition by 214000 against expectations of a number near 230000-235000. The USDX is losing modest weight in early morning session hovering near the 87.50 mark whereas other major currencies were marginally in the green

Mcx Silver Commodity Trading are not seeing any major changes as per concerned wherein over the short-term factors stay in the similar line as we see in the case of gold. However, likewise gold, PVOI numbers depict modest increase in Price, Vol and OI together which may extend its gains towards the middle of the week. Overall we hold a bearish bias though in intraday ranged trade is seen in the commodity as markets also lack any major data in the latter half of the day. Silver re-iterated the broad directional trading from gold commodity and did saw a good comeback on Friday rising by around 2percentage at Comex. However for the whole week it was still lower by 2.4percentage to $15.70 per ounce. Locally, Silver Dec contract at MCX slipped lower to Rs 34800 per Kg mark, weaker by 2.8percentage during the week.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Gold Mcx Dec below 26050 SL 26170 Tgt 25700

Buy Copper Mcx Nov above 413 SL 409 TP 418

Personal Income and Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

MCX Crude as per major news yesterday evening, the OPEC countries likely boosted oil output to a 14 month high in the month of October notwithstanding the crude prices sinking lower to a bear market, a survey from Bloomberg showed. Production by the group is probably rose by 53,000 BPD to 30.974 MBPD led by increase in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya. While last month’s total was revised 14,000 BPD lower, overall the supply side issues have been dragger on international oil markets for last couple of months. Separately, US crude output rose 4percentage to 8.97 MBPD last week, data from EIA showed which is the highest since January 1983.This morning the US oil is seen trading at $80.96 down by 0.20percentage from its previous close. We believe the inherent fundamentals are still poor for the commodity therefore it is trading down and likely that it may again continue to remain bearish. Also, the USD appreciating could be a hindrance factor to keep oil prices lower. For today, we recommend selling the counter from higher levels.

Global Market View: Today morning, Asian equity markets are trading on a positive note after the better than expected US GDP data. US stocks rallied on the news of the economy expanding at a faster pace in the third quarter than investors were expecting. S&P 500 closed at 1994.65 up by 0.62percentage yesterday. SGX nifty is continuing to trade on an appreciating note and is likely to open gap up and continue to appreciate. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on an appreciating note with respect to the dollar. US dollar index continued to trade over the 86 marks, thanks to the stronger outlook for the US economy. Euro was seen trading on a marginally appreciating note with respect to the dollar while Pound was on a slightly depreciating note.

Economic data from the UK, Germany and European economies could weigh in on today’s session. Retail sales data from Germany and the all important inflation figures euro area would need to be watched out for the day. From the US we have personal income and spending number at 6 PM IST. Looking at the economic data and the market behavior the existing trend in most of the assets are likely to continue.

MCX Natural Gas Commodity Market Trading updates forecasted cooler temperatures in Eastern part of the US supported the trend. MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland said weather may be colder than usual in the East-US through Nov 3. However, we feel there are two other variable which too needed to be checked. First, Inventory numbers in the US came weaker than expected wherein actual showed addition of 87 BCF against exp of 84 BCF against last week’s number @94. Separately, already we have seen good gains in NG for last 3-4 session wherein the commodity is moving towards resistance levels in weekly chart. With the CPC 6-10 days Temperature forecast not displaying any major changes, we would be a bit cautious in intraday. Today’s outlook is modestly +ve, though traders should be ready to switch to other direction in a day or two.

Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 36950 SL 37250 Tgt 36150

Sell Copper Mcx Nov below 418 SL 420 Tgt 412

US Advance GDP and Commodity Market Tips

MCX Crude Commodity Market Trading as per the DoE, crude stocks increased for the fourth week due to persistently higher production in the US and the same was completely opposite of the earlier reports by the API which showed decline in Crude stocks in the US. US crude stocks gained by 2.06 million barrels for the week ended Oct 24, whereas negatively stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI increased by 776,000 barrels, to its highest since June this year. In other cues, gasoline inventories fell by 1.24 million barrels, its lowest level since November 2012 while distillate supplies unexpectedly tumbled 5.3 million barrels, probably as refiners started rotating their utilization towards higher distillate supplies ahead of winter. Overall, we could say the data was mixed to moderately positive, however continuously rising supplies in the US casts a doubt on how far the commodity might gain after recording around 3% up move in last three trading sessions. Also we feel, rebound in the prices post the weekly inventory data released was cut back by appreciation of USD after the release of the FED meet outcome. This morning oil is seen trading at $81.64 down by 0.30%. We will have to be again cautious today. At this moment again turning bullish does not looks so much promising but we refrain from selling the counter on today. We have loads of data to be released today and the important one is US GDP. Any improvement in the data might support oil prices to trade again higher. We hold a small buying view on oil today with strict stop loss.

Global Market View: Finally the story ends with Zero dollar monthly bond buying by the Federal Reserve in the US while it stressed on improvements taking place in the labor market. Aftermath: The dollar shot up against most major currencies, Commodities especially gold fell down to $1208 and this morning it’s at $1213.50. Rest of the commodities was very much impulsive.We believe the impact would be continued to feel today as well while more volatility could be noticed. We will have to watch how equity markets, currencies and commodities perform today. At the local market in India, we are going to see a good gap up/down in most of the non-agro commodities prices. There are a few economic expected today while the US GDP number to be watched critically

MCX Natural Gas Markets expected probable lower additions in the NG stocks which pushed commodity higher for last two days whereas fresh cues came from the weather side added gains. The midday update of the government’s Global Forecast System showed a blast of cold air in the East later this week which will extend through next week, according to Jim Southard, meteorologist with Frontier Weather Inc and as reported by Bloomberg. On the inventory side, EIA might show stocks addition by 84 BCF as against 94 BCF last week. While we agree this is still higher than broad trend in last five years, modest buying in the commodity is acceptable after a big slide in last few weeks with weather related news too supporting. Intraday view remains buy though advice traders to refrain from any major carry forward positions as volatility may rise in coming sessions.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Silver Dec Mcx below 38360 SL 38650 Tgt 37800

Buy Lead Oct Mcx above 124 SL 123.15 Tgt 125

FOMC Rate Decision and Commodity Trading Tips

MCX Crude Commodity Market Trading has no fresh developments with regards to the commodity from the international arena. Into the US though, consumer confidence seconded to a seven year high in October, hitting the 94.5 mark providing signs that consumers still stay positive about the prospects of the world’s largest economy. As per latest cues from the country, the private sector major API reported its inventory data wherein it said crude stocks fell by 3.2 million barrels, according to data from Bain Energy. As per estimates, the DoE report tonight might show crude supplies rose by 3.65 million barrels though product stocks are seen lower. Gasoline inventories fell 900,000 barrels whereas distillate stocks probably decline 1.4 million barrel making a largely even set of inventory data. Although the expectation suggest that the stocks may increase but by looking at the API number, we now possibly look for changing our stance and likely that stocks might not raise as much it is expected. So, if such data comes in the US then possibly oil may continue to gain today. We suggest buying oil from lower levels. The only risk to the buying trade would be how the USD performs today ahead of the Fed decision. So, our advice would remain to trade cautious with strict stop loss.

Global Market View for today, all the Asian equity markets are trading largely on positive note tracking the strong performance US equity markets on the back of improved earnings and a dovish FED. S&P 500 closed at 1985.05 up by 1.19 percent in yesterday’s session as investors were relieved from global growth anxiety after optimistic results. US markets were initially lower after the weak durable goods orders but this was offset by a more than expected rise in the US consumer confidence index to 94.5 from a previous level of 86.0.

Economic Data: No major economic data during market hours but all attention would be on the FED announcement that is due in the evening. We expect the FED to end its bond buying program and keep the interest rates unchanged. Coming to commodities, we saw bullion trading in the same confined range; oil rebounded a tad while base metals moved up except zinc while nickel exceptionally rose over 6 percentages. We shall now look at each sector in detail to understand the today’s outlook

MCX Natural Gas Commodity market Trading for today has no changes onto the weather related cues however as said, changes in the Inventory expectations and expiry of the Nov contract probably lead to shift of volumes and also fresh positions building which pushed the commodity smartly higher on Tuesday. The same thing can be seen from the fact that DEC contract gained at a better rate than Jan at NYMEX yesterday. While shorten view stays same, Natural Gas rebound has coincided with the fact that it was trading near oversold phase. Looking at the chart pattern it trade higher for one or two sessions so we recommend buying from lower levels with strict stop loss.

Commodity Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 38350 SL 38550 Tgt 37850

Buy Natural gas Nov Mcx above 230 SL 228 Tgt 235

Durable Goods Orders and Commodity Market Tips

Crude Commodity Trading has Overall no major changes or developments in crude oil prices during the last few days with rising supplies and lower anticipated demand hurt prices. In fresh comments from OPEC, official from National Iranian Oil Co told the group might is unlikely to cut its production target in its meeting in the coming month. Separately, initial estimates for the weekly inventory report in the US shows probable addition in crude stocks to the tune of 3.8 million barrels to 381.5 million. We are not expecting any major support coming from product stocks, whereas refinery utilization rate after falling consistently in past week is seen stable. Over the short-term refinery run is seen declining amidst seasonal maintenance period going in the US. There are not other major developments with regards to the commodity, however weaker US economic data yesterday, concerns about probability of fake trade invoices in the recently published Chinese data and cautiousness ahead of FED meeting outcome tomorrow night (IST) is seen to be continuing to put weight on the commodity today. However, as we have been stating at several occasion the short covering at any point in time is still inevitable. Therefore, we suggest making only momentary trades on the bearish tone for the day.

Global Market View for today’s morning trade all the Asian equity markets are trading on a marginally positive note despite the US equity markets remained subdued yesterday. S&P 500 closed at 1961.63 down by 0.15percentage yesterday as investors were fazed by the falling oil prices, and the less than expected economic data from the US economy. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a mixed note with respect to the dollar. US dollar index has depreciated on Monday after the economic data while is currently trading close to 85.50. Euro and Pound have appreciated moderately with respect to the dollar hovering at 1.2710 and 1.6126 respectively.

Economic data that has been released from the Japanese markets has helped the Japanese yen to recoup some of the losses from yesterday’s session. There is no major economic data that is to be released during the Indian market hours; however, data from the US markets in the evening could have an impact on non-agro commodities during the evening session. From the US we have durable goods order which is expected to improve marginally. Later we have the Case Shiller house index, consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

Natural gas Commodity has no major developments as per the NG commodity is concerned with bias continuing on the negative side. Amidst fresh nature related cues, we saw moderate changes in the US weather wherein modestly cooler temperature in Far East and some parts of western US are seen taken over by warmer to normalized temperature for the coming 1-2 weeks. We held a range view in the commodity yesterday on expectations that cool breeze was building in the aforementioned region though the same reverted.

Commodity Market Tips

Sell Gold Mcx Dec below 27300 SL 27400 Tgt 27050

Buy Copper Mcx Nov above 414 SL 411 Tgt 418

US Flash Services PMI and Commodity Intraday Trading Tips

Gold Commodity market trading feel our view stands in the same line with Bullion expected to continue under perform, as confirmed in our weekly report. Equities trade upper and Dollar for the most part on a flat to positive note is likely to put downbeat demands on Gold. As of closing quote, we saw it was balanced near the $1232 per ounce blotch. Looking at other most important developments due in current week, the FED is expected to completely end its monthly bond-buying program in its meeting this Wednesday whereas positive cues from European banks which managed to pass the stress test also hurt Bullion commodity against its safe haven demand. ETF investments stay low with SPDR fund holdings sliding to fresh 6 year low. We maintain selling bias in the commodity today.

Global Market View as we come back post a big weekend holiday, Asian equity markets are trading on a mixed to positive note with recovery in US markets last week aid shore up. S&P 500 closed at 1964.58 up by 0.7percentage on Friday long-lasting its optimistic drive from the larger part of the week. Owing to a long holiday for the Indian financial markets, we have missed out on the global bounce back on the equity markets front that has been observed for the last few trading sessions. In terms of currency, Asian currencies are trading on a marginally positive note with respect to dollar. US dollar directory has remained assortment bounce in the last few days currently hovering near the 85.55 mark. Euro has respected slightly, at the same time as pound has depreciated with respect to the dollar as compared to Wednesday; and are currently trading at 1.2708 and 1.6105 respectively.

Economic data: EU and US to dominate with IFO Business climate survey from Germany in afternoon followed with Market Services/Composite PMI and Pending home sales from the US which might infuse good volatility in evening session

As stated above, we hold a nearly similar stance in silver commodity in intraday with bias largely seen bearish. On the major note, base metals are largely steady which might not lead to any extended pressure on the commodity though we feel moderately stable to better economic cues from EU and US due today evening may continue to cast negative shadow on the Bullion basket including silver commodity. We recommend selling the same on pullbacks today.

Commodity intraday Trading Tips

Sell Silver Mcx Dec below 38250 SL 38450 Tgt 37700

Buy Aluminum Mcx Oct above 119.80 SL 119 Tgt 121