Category Archives: Nifty Outlook

Nifty Future Momentum Call & FII Derivative Outlook – 05 October’2012

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The Bse Index Shuts at 19058 up 189 points from its Previous Close or +1%. The Nse Index Shuts at 57187 up +57 Points from its Previous Close or +0.98%.

  • End of The Daily Chart Nifty Weekly average moved at 5715 below that monthly average at 5545. On Daily Chart rsi overbought with bullish divergence. Cci move above +100 with bullish cross over. Positional Nifty can touch 5960.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 24911 Contracts of Index Future, worth 714 cores with net OI decreasing by 1843 contracts.
  • Nifty Future was up by 57 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 1843, so FII have booked partial profits Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures. Big Bang Reform 2might turns out to be Buy Rumor and Sell news kind of event.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5787 after making a 18 month high of 5807 but unable to close above 5800 on closing basis, Bulls are in control of market as they have closed nifty above 5740 on closing basis .As discussed the double bottom effect at 5638 is showing up. Another gap has been created today from 5731-5751
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5807 and 5838 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5775 and 5745 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5680 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.56 cores with a addition of 5 Lakh in OI, longs got added in Nifty future. Only point of Concern is the 2.56 Cores in OI with just 4 days into the October series, now this clearly shows overconfidence of Bulls. Most probably we will see a dip in market so that weak bulls are flushed out. So hold longs with strict stop loss.
  • Total F&O turnover was at 1.09 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.22 lakh. PCR at 0.94 and VIX at 16.44, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a up move till 18.5-19 is on cards.
  • 6000 CALL is having highest Open Interest of 60 lakhs with fresh addition of 0.50 lakhs in OI. 5900 CE Open Interest at 50 is second highest lakhs, with fresh addition of 3 lakhs.5800 CE saw an unwinding of 10 lakhs so bears were taken by surprise with Nifty above 5800 and ran for cover and 6100 CE also added 6.4 lakhs ,premium of Rs 8.7 in OI which suggests speculative activity have started in higher calls.5400-6100 CE saw an unwinding of added 6.7 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • 5700 PUT is having highest Open Interest of 55.8 lakhs with fresh addition of  7.2 lakhs in OI, Bulls want to make  5700 as base for starting of October Series.5800 PE added 13 lakhs in OI premium being 71 so bulls are now concentrating on 5800 PE. With small base in OI of 28 lakhs if tomorrow we see it coming towards 40 lakhs 5800 can act as base else bulls will need to run for cover as they are becoming overconfident. 5400-6100 PE added 27.9 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 944 cores and DII sold 818 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 51.83. FII sold 157.66 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5781(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5751 Nifty (For Positional Traders).
  • 5 DMA at 5718
  • 20 DMA at 5553
  • 50 DMA at 5389
  • 200 DMA at 5192
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 87 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 76. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 58003 and above the level marks the track point at 5844 later zipper levels at 5866 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5755 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5733 later dipping levels near 56711 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 05 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5845 sl 5822 Tgt 5866-5888 {Or} Sell Below 5800 sl 5822 Tgt 5777-5755

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 05 Oct’2012:

Buy above 11755 sl 11711 Tgt 11844-11933 {Or} Sell below 11666 sl 11711 Tgt 11622-11577.

Nifty Stock Index & FII Derivative Market Data – 03 October’2012

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The Bse Index Shuts at 18,824 up 62 points from its Previous Close or +0.33%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5719 up +16 Points from its Previous Close or +0.27%.

  • Top Nse Gainers were: JPASSOSIAT, AMBUJACEM, RELINFRA and INFY.
  • Top Nse Losers Were: DLF, BANKBARODA, BAJAJ-AUTO and PNB.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 3255 Contracts of Index Future, worth 94 cores with net OI increasing by 6544 contracts. SGX Nifty is trading at 5791 so another gap up on cards.
  • Nifty Future was up by 25 points and Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 6544,so  FII have initiated longs  in  Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5719 after making a high of 5722 and unable to break 5740, Bulls are in control of market as they have closed nifty above 5700 on closing basis. Nifty has formed a double bottom at 5640 and it’s a bullish pattern, and we have seen a follow up action in past two trading session.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5740 and 5775 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5700 and 5683 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5636 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future October Open Interest is at 2.42 cores with a addition of 6 Lakh in OI, longs got added in Nifty future. Rollovers range for NF comes at 5732-5670 and we have closed above the rollover range.
  • Overall F&O turnover was at 0.67 lakh Cores with total contract traded at new 52 week low of 1.2 lakh. PCR at 0.92 and VIX  at 16.34
  • Nifty 6000 CE  is having highest Open Interest of 52 lakhs with fresh addition of 6.4 lakhs in OI.5800 CE Open Interest at 49 is second highest  lakhs, with fresh addition of 7.2 lakhs. Nifty 5300-6000 CE added just 16.4 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • Nifty 5300 PE is having highest Open Interest of 50 lakhs with fresh addition of 0.83 lakhs in OI, Bulls want to make  5300 as base for October Series.5600 PE added 6.6 lakhs in OI so 5600 is the strong base emerging as per OI table. We need to watch closely the Open Interest in 5700 PE tomorrow opening  as of now OI is at 40 lakhs and if we can see an addition of 10-15 lakhs tomorrow we must be heading upwards , 5300-6000 PE added 21 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • FII bought 207.51 cores and DII sold 407.20 cores in cash segment, INR closed at at 53.7 FII sold 299 crores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5741(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5725 Nifty Future (For Positional Traders)
  • 5 DMA at 5682
  • 20 DMA at 5503
  • 50 DMA at 5367
  • 200 DMA at 5182
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 78 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 73. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Spot Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5733 and above the level marks the track point at 5755 later zipper levels at 5799 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5688 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5666 later dipping levels near 5644 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 03 Oct’2012:

Buy above 5777 sl 5755 Tgt 5799-5822 {Or} Sell Below 5733 sl 5755 Tgt 5711-5688

Bank Nifty Future Momentum Call for 03 Oct’2012:

Buy above 11555 sl 11511 Tgt 11600-11644 {Or} Sell below 11466 sl 11511 Tgt 11422-11377.

Nifty out Look & FII Derivative Data – 21 September’2012

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The Bse Index Shuts at 18,350 down – 147 Points from its Previous Close or -0.79%. The Nse Index Shuts at 5555 down by -46 Points from its Previous Close or -0.82%.

  • Top Nse India Gainers were: M&M Fin Services, Hind Petrol, Sjvn Ltd and Indian Bulls Real Estate.
  • Top Nse India Losers Were: Ttk Prestige, Gmr Infra, Lanco Infra and Jay Prakash Power.
  • Technical correction is in place giving the breathing space to indicator and cooling off the steam of stocks. Consolidation before the next rally will help market to break the swing high of 5652 and March towards 5740. Expiry is just 5 days ahead.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 5957 Contracts of Index Future, worth 102.69 cores  with net OI decreasing by 33817 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 41 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 33817, FII have done profit booking in shorts which they created on Tuesday and coupled with profit booking in longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5554.25, after opening gap down making low of 5537 near our support of 5527 as mentioned, rest of day was consolidating in the range of 5581-5550.As we have said before Consolidation will be name of game for few days and same is happening in market We also have a small gap from 5581-5600 which will be filled eventually.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5581 and 5602 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5537 and 5520 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5485 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty Future September Open Interest is at 2.18 cores with a fresh addition of 2.4 Lakh in OI, shorts addition is seen in Nifty future.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.26 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.93 lakh. PCR at 1.17 and VIX jumped to 18.62.
  • 5700 CE  is having highest Open Interest of 73 lakhs with addition of 2.5 lakhs in OI Calls were written at 5700 as premium came down from 21 to 10 in single session. .5600 CE Open Interest at 69 lakhs, with addition of 6.3 lakhs. Immediate resistance is at 5600 as per Open Interest table. 5200-5800 CE added 2.4 lakhs in Open Interest, Bears gaining some strength at higher levels.FII Options OI saw an reduction of 4.3 lakhs means big move is round the corner.
  • 5500 PE added 3.9 lakh in Open Interest total OI at 75 Lakhs, Bulls want to make  5500 as base for September Series.5600 PE saw an unwinding of 5.4 lakhs in Open Interest ,so puts written by bulls ran for cover today. 5200-5800 PE unwounded 8.8 lakhs in Open Interest bulls getting jittery at higher levels. Any close below 5554 on Nifty Spot will favor bears in extreme short term (This is what we discussed yesterday and todays close 5554.75
  • FII sold 73 cores and DII sold 331 cores in cash segment, INR closed at 54.38. FII sold 428 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5542, Trend Changer at 5405 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5555
  • 20 DMA at 5382
  • 50 DMA at 5306
  • 200 DMA at 5156
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 68 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 67. Indicates Nifty placed in BULLISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5577 and above the level marks the track point at 5600 later zipper levels at 5622 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5533 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5511 later dipping levels near 5488 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 21 Sep’2012:

Buy above 5577 sl 5555 Tgt 5600-5622 {Or} Sell Below 5333 sl 5555 Tgt 5511-5488.

Bank Nifty Momentum Call for 21 Sep’2012:

Buy above 10977 sl 10933 Tgt 11066-11115 {Or} Sell below 10888 sl 110933 Tgt 10844-10800.

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 04 September’2012

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  • The Bse Index put up the lid at 17384 down 45 points or -0.26% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5254, down 5 points or -0.09% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 780 against declines of 635 on the NSE.
  • The stock markets closed with moderate declines today with realty being the most awful performer.
  • PMI data Purchasing Manufacturing Index was released for European countries and India Summing the data Indicates 80% Of the World Is Now in Contraction. Chinese stock market last week made 3 year low, we always say stock market discounts news well in advance and on Sunday we got the news Chinese PMI contracted first time in 9 months. Never fight the market and flow with the trend is the general hypothesis which has been proven correct before, today and in future also.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Ranbaxy, Coal India,Baja-Auto and Maruti.
  • Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sail, Tata Poer, Jindal Steel and Idfc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 6935 Contracts of Index Future, worth 190 cores with net OI decreasing by 6289 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 8 points and OI has decreased by 6289,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series. So FII have been reducing the long exposure in Index future and shorting stock futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5254 after making the higher low of 5243, but bulls were disappointed as Nifty closed below crucial level of 5260. Only we have been advocating Nifty is in Sell on Rise mode which proved again today as Nifty used the weekend development on GAAR issue to open up but selling resumed at higher levels and closed near the lows of the day.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5295 and 5315 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5238 and 5220 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5335 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.97 cores with an addition of 1.47 Lakh in OI, So shorts have started entering the system. Rollover range for September Series comes at 5400-5290. We have closed below 5290 today so we can see follow up action tomorrow bears pressing more on downside.
  • Total F&O turnover was highest ever to 0.76 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.92 lakh. Cash volumes were dismissal today.
  • 5400 CE is having highest OI of 57 lakhs with an addition of 9.5 lakhs in OI. 4900-5600 CE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • 5200 PE added 4.8 lakh in OI and having the highest  OI at 63 lakhs so 5200 is firm base at the starting of September series,4900 PE added 10 lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of 1117 cores in Index Options, so smart money is Buying 4900 PE.4900-5600 PE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • FII  sold 54 cores and DII  sold 160 cores in cash segment, Both FII and DII were sellers in cash segment second day in a row.INR closed at 55.52 . FII were again sellers of 254 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is at 5239, Trend Changer at 5303 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5290
  • 20 DMA at 5335
  • 50 DMA at 5260
  • 200 DMA at 51210
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 24 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5266 and above the level marks the track point at 5288 later zipper levels at 5311 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5244 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5222 later dipping levels near 5200 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 04 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Call – Buy above 5288 sl 5266 Tgt 5311-5333 {Or} Sell Below 5266 sl 5266 Tgt 5244-5222.

Market Weekly Outlook 03-07 September’2012

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  • The market is likely to be volatile this week.
  • Automobile and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveil monthly sales volume data for August 2012 from Saturday, 1 September 2012.
  • Market Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2012 on Monday, 3 September 2012. On Wednesday, 5 September 2012, Market Economics will unveil HSBC India Services PMI for August 2012.
  • The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which gauges business activity at India’s factories but not utilities, fell to 52.9 in July, from 55 in June ~ its biggest one-month drop since September last year. Still, the index has remained above the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction for more than three years. Manufacturing accounts for around 15% of India’s gross domestic product.
  • In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) holds its monthly policy meeting on euro area interest rates on Thursday, 6 September 2012. The ECB slashed its interest rates to an all-time low in July. The ECB is expected to continue its easing cycle, probably as soon as in September, to help the economic recovery of recession- and crisis-ridden members of the euro zone.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel holds a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Thursday, 6 September 2012.
  • UK’s central bank — The Bank of England — holds its monthly meeting on interest rates on Thursday, 6 September 2012.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day meeting on US interest.

Nifty Weekly View:

  • Nifty taking Support @ 50DMA. Now 50 DMA @ 5258. As per Trend line another gigantic Support at 5200. Any Close below this 5200, will Drag Nifty 200 DMA at 5120 levels.
  • On the Upside Bulls have a seen close above 5355 and then a close above 5400. After then can move towards 5488 and 5577 levels.
  • Our short term target for Nifty: The Minimum Target will be 4700+1097 = 5867.

So these levels should be noted carefully to found further Support and Resistance.

  • Nifty made low on 20-12-2011 @ 4531 Nifty made high on 22-02-2012 @ 5628 Total Rally is 1097 Points. 75% correction of 1097 is 822 @ 4805. Nifty may bounce from 4770 levels. The minimum Target will be 4770+1097= 5867. Only Close below 4977 will terminate above view.
  • Nifty weekly Range will be at 5200-5244-5288-5355-5400-5438
  • Weekly Resistance at  5355-5400-5488
  • Weekly Axle at 5288
  • Weekly Support at 5244-5200.

Gold Weekly View

  • Gold Mcx October as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 30,984.00 initially moved lower, and as expected found very good support at 30,656.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 31,405 levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect gold prices to find Support at 31,130.00–31,000.00 levels and further below strong support is seen at 30,860.00-30,830.00 levels. Trading consistently below 30,820.00 levels would trigger sharp correction initially towards 30,382.00 then 30,198.00 and then finally towards the major support at 29,756.00 levels.
  • Resistance is observed in the range of 31,600.00-31,630.00 levels. Trading consistently above 31,630 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 31,880.00levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 32,200.00 levels.

 Gold Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: UP
  • Support at 31,130.000-30,860.00
  • Resistance at 31,600.00-31,800.00
  • Advice: Buy Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,140.00-31,000.00 SL 30,700.00 Target 31,600.00

                                                                           {Or}

               Sell Gold Mcx Oct Around 31,840.00-31,880.00 SL 32,160.00 Target 31,500.00

Silver Weekly View

  • Silver Mcx December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 59,700.00 levels initially moved lower, but found support at 58,601.00 levels. Later prices rallied sharply towards 61,170.00 levels, and finally closed sharply higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 60,240.00-60,200.00 levels and then strong support is seen at 59,300.00-59,250.00 levels. Trading consistently below 59,240.00 levels would trigger correction initially towards 58,240.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 57,670.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 61,880.00-61,940.00 levels. Trading consistently above 61,940.00 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 62,800.00 levels and then finally towards the major Resistance at 63,400.00 levels.

Silver Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 60,240.00-59,300.00
  • Resistance at 61,880.00-62,800.00 
  • Advice: Buy Silver Mcx Dec Around 60240-60140 SL 59200 Target 61300.

                                                                              {Or}

               Sell Silver Mcx Dec Around 61940-61880 SL 62400 Target 61500-60850.

Copper Weekly View:

  • Copper Mcx November as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 431.15 levels initially moved higher, but found strong resistance at 432.90 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 423.00 levels and finally closed lower from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 422.50-421.50 levels and further below strong support is seen at 417.80-416.80 levels. Daily closing below 416.80 levels would indicate that a short term top has been posted and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 413 and then finally towards 408.80 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 431-433 levels. Trading consistently above 433 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 437.60 and then finally towards the major resistance at 441.10 levels.

Copper Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Side-Ways
  • Support at 422.50-417.80
  • Resistance at 431.10-437.60
  • Advice:  Buy Copper MCX Nov Around 422.50-421.50 SL 417 Target 428-431.

Crude Weekly View:

  • Crude Mcx September as seen in the weekly chart above has opened at 5363.00 levels initially moved sharply higher and as expected found good resistance at 5424.00 levels. Later prices fell sharply towards 5257.00 levels and finally closed marginally higher from the previous weeks closing levels.
  • This week we expect Crude prices to find support at 5295.00-5285.00 levels. Trading consistently below 5280.00 levels would lead towards the strong support at 5130.00-5110.00 levels. Daily closing below 5100.00 levels would indicate that the current rally has come to end and thereby correction can be expected initially towards 4990.00 levels and then finally towards the major support at 4893.00 levels.
  • Resistance is now observed in the range of 5456.00-5466.00 levels. Trading consistently above 5470.00 levels would extend the previous week’s rally initially towards 5548.00 levels and then finally towards the Major resistance at 5625.00 levels.

Crude Oil Trading levels for the week:

  • Trend: Up
  • Support at 5295.00-5130.00
  • Resistance at 5456.00-5548.00
  • Advice:  Buy Crude Mcx Sep Around 5300-5290 SL 5235 Target 5365-5450.

Economic Indicators For The Week:

Date & Time

Region

Events

Period

Survey

Prior

09/03/2012 & 06:30

CH

Non-Manufacturing PMI

Aug

—

55.6

09/03/2012 & 08:00

CH

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Aug

—

49.3

09/03/2012 & 10:30

JN

Vehicle Saies {YoY}

Aug

—

36.10%

09/03/2012 & 10:02

GE

PMI Manufacturing

Aug F

45.1

45.1

09/03/2012 & 13:30

EC

PMI Manufacturing

Aug F

45.3

45.3

09/03/2012 & 14:00

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Aug

46.1

45.4

09/04/2012 & 14:30

EC

Euro-Zone PPI {MoM}

Jul

0.20%

-0.50%

09/04/2012 & 19:30

US

ISM Manufacturing

Aug

50

48

09/04/2012 & 19:30

US

ISM Price Paid

Aug

46

39.5

09/04/2012 & 19:30

US

Construction Spending MoM

Jul

0.4%

0.4%

09/05/2012 & 02:30

US

Total Vehicle Sales

Aug

14.20M

14.05M

09/05/2012 & 02:30

US

Domestic Vehicle Sales

Aug

11.05M

11.00M

09/05/2012 & 8:00

CH

HSBC Services PMI

Aug

—

53.1

09/05/2012 &13:25

GE

PMI Services

Aug F

48.3

48.3

09/05/2012 &13:30

EC

PMI Composite

Aug F

46.6

46.6

09/05/2012 & 13:30

EC

PMI Services

Aug F

47.5

47.5

09/05/2012 & 14:30

EC

Euro-Zone Retail Sales(MoM)

Jul

-0.20%

0.10

09/05/2012 & 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Application

31-Aug

—

-4.30%

09/05/2012 & 18:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

2QF

1.80%

1.60%

09/05/2012 & 18:00

US

Unit Labor cost

2QF

1.40%

1.70%

09/06/2012 & 14:30

EC

Euro Zone GDP s.a.(QoQ)

2QP

-0.20%

-0.20%

09/06/2012 & 15:30

GE

Factory Orders MoM (sa)

Jul

0.30%

-1.70%

09/06/2012 & 16:30

UK

BOE ANNOUNCES RATES

6-Sep

0.50&%

0.50%

09/06/2012 & 17:15

EC

ECB Announces Interest Rates

6-Sep

0.50%

0.75%

09/06/2012 & 17:45

US

EDP Employment Change

Aug

145K

165K

09/06/2012 & 18:00

US

Continuing Claims

25-Aug

3315K

3316K

09/06/2012 & 19:30

US

ISM Non-Manf.Composite

Aug

52.5

52.6

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Export SA(MoM)

Jul

-0.50%

-1.05%

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Imports SA {MoM}

Jul

-0.30%

-3.00%

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Current Account {Euro}

Jul

13.5B

16.5B

09/07/2012 & 11:30

GE

Trade Balance

Jul

15.3B

17.9B

09/07/2012 & 14:00

UK

Industrial Production {MoM}

Jul

1.50%

-2.50%

09/07/2012 & 14:00

UK

Manufacturing production {MoM}

Jul

1.80%

-2.90%

09/07/2012 & 15:30

GE

Industrial Production MoM {Sa}

Jul

0.00%

-0.90%

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Change in Non Farm Payrolls

Aug

125K

163K

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Change in Private Payrolls

Aug

140K

172K

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Change In Manufact. Payrolls

Aug

10K

25K

09/07/2012 & 18:00

US

Unemployment Rate

Aug

8.30%

8.30%

07-12 Sep

GE

Whole Sale Price Index {Mom}

Aug

—-

0.30%

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 28 August’2012

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The Bse Index put down the lid at 17679 down 104 points or -0.59% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5350 down 36 points or -0.68% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.8% and BSE Small cap index was down 1% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 418 against declines of 1021 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate losses today with realty, banking and capital goods being the biggest losers.

Top Nse India Gainers were: M7M, Power Grid, Cairn and Hindunilvr.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Jindal Stee, Pnb, Jp Assosiate and Idfc.

Market Signs:

  • HCL Infosystems Q4 cons net loss at Rs.2 cr Vs profit of Rs.23 cr (QoQ).
  • S Mobility Q1 cons net loss at Rs.5.2 cr Vs loss of Rs.20 cr (QoQ); cons net sales at Rs.511.3 cr Vs Rs.553.3 cr (QoQ).
  • Jain Irrigation board will meet today to approve issue of securities.
  • Trent has issued 5.26 lakh shares to Tata Sons subsidiaries at Rs 980/share on preference basis.
  • Welspun Corp has raised Rs 200 cr via NCD (non convertible debentures) issue.
  • The board members of Bajaj FinServ will meet to consider the rights issue on August 29.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 1302 cr order from Petroleum Development Oman.
  • MoS, Oil says cannot hike diesel price due to inflation.
  • Larsen and Toubro have bagged Rs 749 cr order from ONGC for 4 Wellhead platforms.
  • L&T signs share sale and purchase agreement with Japan’s Toshiba Machine Co to sell its entire stake in L&T Plastics Machinery Ltd.
  • Supreme Court has sought pollution board’s report on Sterlite’s Tuticorin Plant by September-end.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 13648 Contracts of Index Future, worth 384 cores with net OI increasing by 13010 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 40 points and OI has increased by 13010, FII are booking profits in longs. No shorts have been created as per data analyzed.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5350 after making the low of 5346 near to our 1 tgt of 5341, Bulls were under pressure from morning as they were unable to close nifty above 5400, We have discussed the resistance at 5401 and Nifty made a high of 5399 today.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5366 and 5401 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5341 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5313 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.3 cores with an unwinding of 18 Lakh in OI, but the same got roll overed to September Series. September Series OI is at 60 lakhs so 18 lakhs got roll overed and 7 lakh extra addition.
  • Total Future & Option turnover was 1.19 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 1.89  lakh,Cash volumes were very dismissal at 5051 now this signify the fall was in technical in nature no major selling has happened today. So tomorrow we can see a reverse up move if 5341 is not broken. In past, whenever Nifty has formed a low near the support with falling volumes (as compared to previous sessions) we observed minor bottom reversal pattern. Today’s decline with falling volume (compared to Friday) could be a sign of possible reversal.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.7 lakhs with total OI now standing at 29 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 10 lakhs and total OI stands at 66 lakhs so 5400 CE writers, 5500 CE still having highest OI of 1.05 core lakhs,so 5400 is the ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE added 3.2 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.08 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 second day running, 5400 PE saw an huge unwinding, as Expiry is 3 trading session away. Looking at huge unwinding i accept nifty to come near 5400 tomorrow.
  • FII bought 200 cores and DII sold 500 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.7. FII has bought 8046 Cr in cash market in August series.FII sold 551 of stock futures also
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5347, Trend Changer at 5326 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5397
  • 20 DMA at 5313
  • 50 DMA at 5243
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 40 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 56. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5333 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5311 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 28 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5377 sl 5355 Tgt 5399-5422 {Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5333 sl 5355 Tgt 5311-5288.

Nifty Outlook & FII Darivatives Data for 23 August’2012

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The Bse Index Closes on Yesterday at 17847 down38 Points or -0.21% and the Nifty fasten store at 5413 down 8 points from the previous close or +-0.15%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.5% while the BSE Small cap index declines 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 653 against declines of 788 on the NSE.

The markets closed with judicious declines today with realty and power being the nastiest performers. Banking, healthcare and auto made some gains.

Nse India Top Gainers in Yesterday’s Trade: Ranbaxy, Bpcl, Bank of Baroda and Infosyis.

Nse India Top Losers in Yesterday’s Trade: Airtel, Idfc, Sesa Goa and Ntpc.

Stock Cipher:

  • NMDC hikes iron ore price by 8-13%.
  • This fiscal year, ONGC is planning to spend Rs 15000 cr to drill 480 wells.
  • Essar Oil is in an agreement of USD 1.2 billion with Colombia to buy crude oil.
  • Wockhardt has received a tentative US FDA nod for Anti-psychotic Drug Geodon.
  • Alstom – BHEL will be supplying turbo-generator package for Rawatbhata Nuclear Plan.

 FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 7345 Contracts of Nifty, worth 183 cores  with net OI decreasing by 3965 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 11 points and OI has decreased by 3965, FII have started booking profits Index futures. The way we fell down from 5455 NF suggests profit booking.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5413 after making the high of 5433. Bulls successfully managed to close nifty above 5400 Inspite of bad global cues which suggests strength. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5446 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5395 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5269 is not broken on closing basis.
  • As we discussed yesterday it will be a range bound day and a listless market and nifty obliged us by doing nothing. Hope traders were able to benefit the same.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.61 cores with an unwinding of 2.57 Lakh in OI, longs were unwounded by Retailers and HNI. I expect small range tomorrow probably till 5447 on higher end and 5400 on lower end with stock specific action looking at OI figure. (This is what we discussed yesterday and same happened today).
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.06 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.68 lakh, Nifty Future made a new high with pathetic volumes, Also the Cash volume were 30% lower than average which suggests distribution happening at higher levels. Be cautious on your longs and ride it till music lasts.
  • 5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 1.67 lakhs with total OI now standing at 31 lakhs, Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 0.44  lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs no major unwinding seen, 5500 CE still having  highest OI of 1 core lakhs, with fresh addition of 1.6 lakhs in OI.
  • 5300 PE added 0.8 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.07 cr which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also added 10 Lakh in OI so now traders are eyeing 5400 PE as next base for Nifty.
  • FII bought 96 cores and DII sold 230 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.57. FII again sold 230 cores in Stock Futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5386, Trend Changer at 5312 Nifty (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5389
  • 20 DMA at 5269
  • 50 DMA at 5226
  • 200 DMA at 5117
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 77
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 67. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zooper levels at 5488 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5400 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5477 later dipping levels near 5355 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 23 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5444 Sl 5422 Tgt 5466-5488 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5400 Sl 5422 Tgt 5377-5355.