Category Archives: Equity Investment

Commodity Market Outlook 06 Sep’2012

Posted on by

GOLD:

Gold trading range for the day is 31363-31595.

Gold dropped from highs as investors sat on the sidelines on the eve of the European Central Bank meeting.

Reports of ECB bond-buying plans boosted the euro and helped push down yields on Spanish and Italian bonds

India may raise an import duty for a third time this year to curb purchases and reduce a record current-account deficit.

SILVER:

Silver trading range for the day is 61335-62461.

Silver dropped on profit booking after prices supported on reports concerning some details of ECB’s bond purchasing plan.

Demand for bullion in India, remained dull with buyers shying from making purchases

Holdings at ishares silver trust rose by 91.26 tonnes to 9734.23 tonnes

CRUDE:

Crude trading range for the day is 5252-5382.

Crude inched up in seesaw trade ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a U.S. August payrolls report

Most eastern Louisiana refineries affected by Isaac have restarted production since the storm passed

Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -4.9M PREV: 3.8M. Actual is at 8.30PM.

COPPER:

Copper gained on reports that ECB will unveil a new government bond-buying program to control euro debt crisis

Stimulus measures or monetary easing intended to relaunch economic growth would strongly benefit metals demand growth

A forecast deficit in copper supply this year however was supporting the metal price.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 215050mt that is down by  -3750mt.

ZINC:

Zinc trading range for the day is 103.33-106.23.

Zinc gained as market expects Draghi will hint to take action to help ease investors’ concerns over European debt crisis

Base metal price hike was mainly due to improved risk appetite on bond-buying program from the euro zone.

Moody’s slashed Ireland’s credit rating from Aaa to A3, and Portugal’s credit rating from Aaa to Baa3

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 948050mt that is down by  -1500mt.

NICKLE:

Nickel trading range for the day is 887.23-911.

Nickel ended with gains boosted by Draghi’s new round of bond purchasing program

Draghi has said firmly that the main responsibility of the ECB is to intervene in bond markets

According to two officials from the European Central, the ECB will purchase bond unlimitedly.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 120054mt that is up by  330mt..

 NATURAL GAS:

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 153.73-162.73.

Natural gas moved sharply lower as market participants followed updated weather forecasts.

Market shifted their focus to the EIA’s weekly report on natural gas inventories.

Today natural gas storage: EXP: 40B PREV: 66B. Actual is at 8.00 PM.

Natural Gas is holding with a support at 153.73 and resistance will be likely at 162.73.

ALUMINIUM:

Aluminium trading range for the day is 106.58-110.88.

Aluminium gained on reports that European officials said ECB may buy unlimited amounts of government debt

US Labor Department announced revised non-farm productivity rose 2.2% in 2Q, better than market anticipations.

Moody’s slashed Ireland’s credit rating from Aaa to A3, and Portugal’s credit rating from Aaa to Baa3

Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at 4874625mt that is down by  -3850mt.

SOYABEAN:

Ref soyaoil trading range for the day is 802.13-813.23.

Ref soyaoil dropped on some profit booking but downside was limited as good demand in spot market due supported prices

Overall demand is expected to pick up which will support the market sentiments in medium term.

Soybean production in 2012 is likely to be more than last year but heavy rainfall in central India remains a concern

At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up by 4.65 rupee to 802.65 rupees 10 kgs.

CRUDE PALM OIL:

CPO trading range for the day is 552.33-563.33.

Crude palm oil prices slipped on market expectations of rising stockpiles in the world’s second biggest producer.

Palm oil prices have been treading water even though the U.S. soy market hit a record high the previous day

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said last week that August exports rose 18% to 1.45 million tons.

Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 3.00 rupees and settled at 551.70 rupees.

WHEAT:

Wheat trading range for the day is 1520-1580.

Wheat gains tracking firm spot demand after good gains in the last session though the selling pressure in spot markets

The demand remains steady ahead of the peak festive season and could pick up in case prices fall further.

FCI selling has had a considerable effect on the proceedings in what is normally a busy season.

In Delhi wheat prices gained 13.75 rupee to end at 1571.25 rupees per 10 kg.

TODAY’S ADVICE FOR COMMODITY CALL:

    • BUY SILVER MCX DEC ABOVE 62020 SL 61800 TGT 622240-62480
    • CRUDE MCX SEPT BUY ABOVE 5340 SL 5310 TGT 5370-5400
    • MENTHA OIL MCX SEP BUY ABOVE 1360 SL 1348 TGT 1365-1375

Nifty Outlook & FII Derivative Data – 04 September’2012

Posted on by
  • The Bse Index put up the lid at 17384 down 45 points or -0.26% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5254, down 5 points or -0.09% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.1% and BSE Small cap index was gained 0.2% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 780 against declines of 635 on the NSE.
  • The stock markets closed with moderate declines today with realty being the most awful performer.
  • PMI data Purchasing Manufacturing Index was released for European countries and India Summing the data Indicates 80% Of the World Is Now in Contraction. Chinese stock market last week made 3 year low, we always say stock market discounts news well in advance and on Sunday we got the news Chinese PMI contracted first time in 9 months. Never fight the market and flow with the trend is the general hypothesis which has been proven correct before, today and in future also.
  • Top Nse India Gainers were: Ranbaxy, Coal India,Baja-Auto and Maruti.
  • Top Nse India Lossers Were: Sail, Tata Poer, Jindal Steel and Idfc.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII sold 6935 Contracts of Index Future, worth 190 cores with net OI decreasing by 6289 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 8 points and OI has decreased by 6289,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series. So FII have been reducing the long exposure in Index future and shorting stock futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5254 after making the higher low of 5243, but bulls were disappointed as Nifty closed below crucial level of 5260. Only we have been advocating Nifty is in Sell on Rise mode which proved again today as Nifty used the weekend development on GAAR issue to open up but selling resumed at higher levels and closed near the lows of the day.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5295 and 5315 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5238 and 5220 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5335 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty September OI is at 1.97 cores with an addition of 1.47 Lakh in OI, So shorts have started entering the system. Rollover range for September Series comes at 5400-5290. We have closed below 5290 today so we can see follow up action tomorrow bears pressing more on downside.
  • Total F&O turnover was highest ever to 0.76 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.92 lakh. Cash volumes were dismissal today.
  • 5400 CE is having highest OI of 57 lakhs with an addition of 9.5 lakhs in OI. 4900-5600 CE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • 5200 PE added 4.8 lakh in OI and having the highest  OI at 63 lakhs so 5200 is firm base at the starting of September series,4900 PE added 10 lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of 1117 cores in Index Options, so smart money is Buying 4900 PE.4900-5600 PE added 29 lakhs in OI.
  • FII  sold 54 cores and DII  sold 160 cores in cash segment, Both FII and DII were sellers in cash segment second day in a row.INR closed at 55.52 . FII were again sellers of 254 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is at 5239, Trend Changer at 5303 Nifty. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5290
  • 20 DMA at 5335
  • 50 DMA at 5260
  • 200 DMA at 51210
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 24 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 44. Indicates Nifty placed in BEARISH Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5266 and above the level marks the track point at 5288 later zipper levels at 5311 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5244 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5222 later dipping levels near 5200 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 04 Sep’2012:

Nifty Future Call – Buy above 5288 sl 5266 Tgt 5311-5333 {Or} Sell Below 5266 sl 5266 Tgt 5244-5222.

World Market View – Asian Markets, Global Market Watch

Posted on by

 

  • World Market View - Asian Markets, Global Market WatchAsian markets were trading mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite was flat at 2,050.71.
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.11% or 20.83 points at 19,532.08.
  • Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.84% or 75.76 points at 8,908.02.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was up 0.11% or 3.20 points at 3,015.02.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite was flat at 1,905.49.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted gained 0.31% or 22.75 points at 7,394.19.
  • The US accelerate their losses in the final minutes of trading to close near session lows, with the S&P 500 closing just below the key 1,400 level, a day ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting and following reports that Spain may delay its decision on seeking a bailout. The CBOE volatility index jumped to close near 18.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.81% or 106.77 points at 13000.71. Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.05% or 32.48 points at 3048.71. Standard & Poor’s 500 shed 0.78% or 11.01 points at 1399.48.
  • On economic data front, jobless claims were unchanged last week holding at a seasonally adjusted 374,000. Consumer spending gained 0.4% in July, climbing by the most in five months. Meanwhile, income increased 0.3%.
  • In key data to watch out for in US today, factory orders are expected may grow by 2%. Also global market watch out for consumer sentiment data.
  • In the currency space, the euro stabilises after slipping to 1.24 ahead of the Jackson Hole meet.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices holding above USD 112 levels supported by supply concerns and geopolitical. Meanwhile, Nymex crude eases further to sub USD 95 levels.
  • Indian ADRs ended lower on Thursday. In the IT space, Patni was down 2.95% at USD 18.11, Infosys was down 0.8% at USD 42.41 and Wipro was down 0.62% at USD 7.98.
  • In the Telecom space, MTNL was down 9.27% at USD 1.37 and Tata Communication was up 0.61% at USD 8.2. In the Banking space, ICICI Bank was down 1.45% at USD 32.66 and HDFC Bank was down 0.09% at USD 34.08.
  • In the other space, Dr Reddys was down 1.35% at USD 29.89, Tata Motors was down 0.52% at USD 20.99 and Sterlite was down 0.14% at USD 7.25.

Overseas Stock Market – Stock Market Quotes

Posted on by
  • As per overseas market view, the US markets eke out marginal gains following the Fed’s beige book report, but trading was thin and muted throughout most of the session as investors remained cautious ahead of Chairman Bernanke’s speech tomorrow. The CBOE volatility index rose more than 3% to above 17.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.03% or 4.49 points at 13107.48. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.13% or 4.05 points at 3081.19. Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.08% or 1.19 points at 1410.49 in New York stock exchange
  • On economic data front, the US economy fared slightly better than expected in the second quarter, expanding at a 1.7-percent annual rate. Pending home sales in July jumped to their highest level in more than two years.
  • According to the Fed’s latest beige book, the economy continues to show improvement in July and early August, but manufacturing activity has weakened in many areas of the country. The Fed also says that retail activity, including auto sales, has picked up since its previous report.
  • In key data to watch out for in the US today, weekly jobless claims are expected to dip slightly to 370,000.
  • In the currency space, the euro stays near the 7-week high versus the dollar. The dollar index towards the 81.50 mark.
  • In commodities, Nymex crude prices decline following a rise in US crude stockpiles. Brent crude stays above USD 112 levels.
  • From the precious metals space, gold price trade around USD 1655 levels.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Wednesday. In the IT space, Wipro was up 0.25% at USD 8.03, Patni was unchanged at USD 18.66 and Infosys was down 0.77% at USD 42.75.
  • In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was up 0.62% at USD 34.11 and ICICI Bank was down 0.33% at USD 33.14. In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was up 0.37% at USD 8.15 and MTNL was down 1.95% at USD 1.51.
  • In the other space, Sterlite was down 5.47% at USD 7.26, Dr Reddys was down 0.59% at USD 30.3 and Tata Motors was up 0.62% at USD 21.1.

F&O CUES:

  • Nifty options suggest market range of 5200-5400
  • Total Puts shed 37.6 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Calls adds 33.4 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5400 Call adds 15.25 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • 5300 Put sheds 19.2 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Sept 5400 Call adds 6.7 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Sept 5300 Call adds 3.9 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Sept 5200 Put adds 3.5 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Sept 5100 Put adds 2.8 lakh shares in Open Interest
  • Total Nifty Futures shed 3.1 lakh shares in OI
  • Stock Futures sheds 58.4 lakh shares in OI
  • Nifty PCR fell to 1.13 from 1.23
  • India VIX closed at 16.74 up by 2.39%
  • FIIs in F&O on August 29
  • FIIs net sell Rs 7 cr in Index Futures; Index Futures Open Int Contracts down by 19355
  • FIIs net sell Rs 772 cr in Index Options; Index Options Open Int Contracts up by 12916
  • FIIs net sell Rs 579 cr in Stock Futures; Stock Futures Open Int Contracts up by 5755

 

Nifty out Look, FII Derivative Data, Nifty Future Momentum Call – 29 August’2012

Posted on by

The Bse Index put down the lid at 17632 down 47 points or -0.27% and Nifty Shut Stop at 5335 down 15 points or -0.29% from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Small cap index was down 1.4% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 335 against declines of 1096 on the NSE.

The markets closed with moderate declines today with metal taking a severe beating.

Top Nse India Gainers were: Power Grid, Tcs, Asian Paints and Dr. Reddy.

Top Nse India Lossers Were: Ster, Jindal Steel, Jp  Assosiates and Hindalco.

FII Derivative Data:

  • FII bought 15439 Contracts of Index Future, worth 433 cores with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was down by 16 points and OI has increased by 69021, FII have created fresh longs in index futures ahead of expiry. FII buying is quiet visible even though mid caps and small cap Index were down by 1.1.5% NF was down by just 16 points.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5335 after making the low of 5313; Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5341 got broken on Nifty. Bears were unable to break the crucial support of 5313 which also is the low for today, shows next 2 days Bulls can be on roar if 5300 is not broken tomorrow.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5361 and 5392 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5313 and 5294 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5325 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.0 cores with an unwinding of 32 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollover to September Series. September Series OI is at 1.16 lakhs so 32 lakhs got rollover and 24 lakh extra addition in OI. Longs are getting rollover to next series.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.73 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.66 lakh, Volumes were quiet high today looking at brutal fall we have seen in mid caps stocks Adani, JIndals.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 5 lakhs with total OI now standing at 34 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 18 lakhs and total OI stands at 85 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are assuming Nifty will expire below 5400 and they can eat the whole premium, 5400 is immediate ceiling for the market.
  • 5300 PE sheded 12 lakh in OI and having the OI at 95 lakhs which suggests traders are getting little jittery that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 third day running,  and Put writers got jittery as Nifty came near 5313. 5300 seems a strong base and 5400 strong resistance for next 2 days.FII net sold 877 cores in Options suggesting profit booking in Put option as they saw a huge unwinding of 25 lakhs basically in 5300 and 5400 PE.
  • FII bought 93 cores and DII sold 314 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.6. FII were again sellers of 551 cores in Stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5328, Trend Changer at 5327 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5380
  • 20 DMA at 5325
  • 50 DMA at 5247
  • 200 DMA at 5118.
  • 5 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 434 and 14 Days Relative Strengthen Index at 54. Indicates Nifty placed in NEUTRAL Zone.

Nifty Support & Resistance:

Nifty Resistance at It has the First resistance close to the level 5355 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zipper levels at 5444 marks.

Support at It has the first support close to the level of 5311 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5288 later dipping levels near 5266 marks.

Nifty Future Momentum Call for 29 Aug’2012:

Nifty Future Buy above 5355 sl 5333 Tgt 5400-5444{Or} Nifty Future Sell Below 5311 sl 5333 Tgt 5288-5266.

Arbitrage Funds – A Good Venture Opportunity in Volatile Markets

Posted on by

Arbitrage Funds: A good venture opportunity in volatile markets, Mutual FundsEquity markets are witnessing excessive volatility in recent times due to a host of factors in domestic as well as global economies. While lower GDP growth, high fiscal and trade deficit, rising subsidy bill and depreciation of the rupee affect the domestic economy, global markets are facing the heat of the European debt crisis. These factors have taken a toll on the stock markets and diversified equity funds dropped more than 8% on an average over the last one year. Under these circumstances, one may explore a class of mutual funds where regular returns can be obtained by taking very little risk irrespective of the market conditions. Sounds strange? Welcome to the world of arbitrage funds.

How the concept works

Arbitrage funds aim to generate income by using arbitrage opportunities between the cash market and the futures (or derivatives) market. The arbitrage gain can be achieved by taking advantage of the mispricing that exists between the cash and the derivatives market. For example, let us assume that the stock of ABC Company is trading at Rs. 200. Let us also consider that the stock is traded in derivatives segment as well (all scrip’s are not traded in the derivative segment), where its future price is Rs. 210. In such a situation, an investor will be able to make a risk-free profit by selling a futures contract of ABC Company at Rs. 210 and buy an equivalent number of shares in the cash market at Rs. 200. When the settlement day will come, it wouldn’t matter which direction the stock price of the company has taken in the mean time because on the date of expiry (settlement date), the price of equity shares and their stock futures will tend to coincide. Now, the initial transaction has to be reversed, that is, buy back the contract in the futures market and sell off the equity. Thus four transactions have taken place: buying stocks, selling futures, selling stocks and finally buying futures. In this way, an investor earns the spread of Rs. 10 between the purchase price of the equity shares and the sale price of futures contract, irrespective of the share price.

Different arbitrage opportunities

The arbitrage opportunity mainly arrives when there is more volatility in the markets because heavy volatility leads to more mispricing in cash and futures market. Moreover, when a company merges with or taken over by another company, arbitrage opportunities may arise due to mispricing of the scrip. Also if the company announces buy-back of its own shares, there could be arbitrage opportunities due to difference in buy-back price and traded price. During declaration of dividend, the stock futures/options market can also provide an arbitrage opportunity as the stock price normally drops by the dividend amount when the stock goes ex-dividend. The mispricing across various indices can lead to arbitrage opportunities.

Different Arbitrage Opportunities

Over last 1-year, 3-year and 5-year time periods, the average returns generated by arbitrage funds were 8.73%, 6.9% and 7.15% respectively. The likes of ICICI Prudential Blended Plan – Option A , IDFC Arbitrage Fund – Plan A (Regular) , JM Arbitrage Advantage Fund , Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund , Reliance Arbitrage Advantage Fund – Growth and SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund – Growth delivered more than 9% returns over the last one year.

Limitations

Arbitrage funds also have their limitations, which are particularly evident when there is stability in the market. Mispricing opportunities are relatively lower in stable market conditions and arbitrage funds normally lag in such situations. Also, cost issues are there in arbitrage funds. The brokerages and commissions involved in buying and selling futures and stocks, affect the returns of funds.

Tax perspective

Arbitrage funds are classified as equity or non-equity funds as per their average equity holdings. If the average equity component is more than 65%, it will be considered as an equity fund. Accordingly from tax perspective, the fund will get benefits of no dividend distribution tax, and no capital gains tax if sold after one year. But if this asset allocation level is not maintained, it will be treated as a non-equity fund and will be taxed like a debt fund.

Upcoming IPO – Comfort Commotrade Limited (CCL)

Posted on by

Incorporated in 2007, Comfort Commotrade Limited (CCL) is currently engaged in the business of commodity broking. They offers trading in many commodities such as bullion (gold, silver), energy (crude oil, natural gas), metals, food grains (rice, maize), spices, oil and oil seeds and others. They are the member of MCX and NCDEX.

Comfort Group is headquartered in Mumbai. The group is also engaged in the business of providing loans through its group company Comfort Intech Limited. The Company has a diversified client base that includes HNIs, retail customers, mutual fund houses, financial institutions, corporate clients and others.

Company Promoters:

The promoters of the company are:

  1. Mr. Anil Agrawal
  2.  Mrs. Annu Agrawal

Objects of the Issue:

The objects of this Issue are to raise funds to:

1. Expand their business operations;

2. Enhancement of margin money maintained with the exchanges;

3. General corporate purpose;

4. Issue expenses.

Issue Details:

  • Issue Open: Sep 05, 2012 – Sep 10, 2012
  • Issue Type: Fixed Price Issue IPO
  • Issue Size: 6,000,000 Equity Shares of Rs. 10
  • Issue Size: Rs. 6.00 Crore
  • Face Value: Rs. 10 per Equity Share
  • Issue Price: Rs. 10 per Equity Share
  • Market Lot: 10000 Shares
  • Minimum Order Quantity: 10000 Shares
  • Listing At: BSE/NSE

Nifty Outlook & FII Data – 22 August’2012

Posted on by

The Bse Index Closes on Yesterday at 17885 up 194 Points or +1.10% and the Nifty fasten store at 5421 up 54 points from the previous close or +1.02%. The CNX Midcap index was up 0.3% while the BSE Small cap index gains 0.5% in Yesterday’s Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 798 against declines of 634 on the NSE.

Nifty managed to cross its resistance of 5400 and give a closing above it, for the first time since March 16. Banks, IT, cements and power stocks saw strong buying interest.

Nse India Top Gainers in Yesterday’s Trade: Sterlite Industries, Dlf and Sesa Goa.

Nse India Top Losers in Yesterday’s Trade: Bharathi Airtel, Cairn India and Pnb.

Stock Cipher:

  • Wockhardt  has got USFDA nod for generic version of Comtan.
  • Reliance Power would be worst hit if coal block are re-allocated; Tata Power would be least affected by the same.
  • L&T Construction Division bags orders over Rs 2,044 crore since July 1.
  • Tata Steel to redeem convertible alternative reference securities on September 5.
  • Supreme Court directs government, AAI to file affidavits on DIAL ADF levy.
  • Delhi HC issues notice to SEBI on plea to ban algorithm trading.
  • Bayer’s appeal at Intellectual Property Appellate Board postponed to 1st week of September.

FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 12968 Contracts of Nifty, worth 264 cores with net OI increasing by 12172 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 60 points and OI has increased by 12172, FII have created fresh longs into Index futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5421 highest level closing in past 5 months, Bulls are going step by step closing above 5350 and than 5400. Now we need a weekly closing above 5400 to make sure this is not a whipsaw.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5446 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely, Support now exists at 5400 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5255 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.63 cores with an addition  of 7.78 Lakh in OI, longs were added by Retailers and HNI and shorts were covered as 5400 NS was Sl for many traders .I expect small range tomorrow probably till 5447 on higher end and 5400 on lower end  with stock specific action looking at OI figure.
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.02 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.0 lakh; This is point of concern on small down days we see a turnover of 1.20 lakhs and down day turnover near 1 lakh cr. Also cash volume trades and turnover are less than 10% tommrow which means rally was only backed by short covering not based on delivery based buying.
  • 5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 8 lakhs with total OI now standing at 32 lakhs, Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 1.41  lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs no major unwinding seen,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 98 lakhs, with fresh addition of 5 lakhs in OI.
  • 5300 PE added 15 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.06 cr which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also added 25 Lakh in OI so now traders are eyeing 5400 PE as next base for Nifty. With such a huge addition i expect Nifty to once touch 5400 tomorrow.
  • FII bought 141 cores and DII sold 141 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.71
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5400, Trend Changer at 5304 NIFTY (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5376
  • 20 DMA at 5255
  • 50 DMA at 5219
  • 200 DMA at 5116
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 83
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 68. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5444 and above the level marks the track point at 5466 later zooper levels at 5488 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5400 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5477 later dipping levels near 5355 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 22 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5444 Sl 5422 Tgt 5466-5488 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5400 Sl 5422 Tgt 5377-5355.

Nifty out Look & FII Data – 21 August’2012

Posted on by

The Bse Index Closes on Friday at 17691 up 34 Points or +0.19% and the Nifty fasten store at 5366, up 3 points from the previous close or +0.06%. The CNX Midcap index was down 0.1% while the BSE Small cap index gains 0.02% in Fridays Trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 654 against declines of 797 on the NSE.

The markets lost all the gains on Friday morning trade and closed flat. FMCG, IT, auto and consumer durables were the biggest gainers in Friday’s session while realty, power and metal tried to pull the indices down.

Nse India Top Gainers in Friday’s Trade: Tata Motors, Hul, Itc and Infosyis.

Nse India Top Losers in Friday’s Trade: Jindal Steel, Tata Power, Reliance Infra and Dlf.

Stock Cipher:

  • UltraTech and Lupin will be replacing SAIL and Sterlite in Nifty from Sept 28, 2012.
  • Cairn India has acquired 60% in offshore Block 1 in South Africa.
  • Dhanlaxmi bank is planning to cut stake in Destimoney from 13% to 5%.
  • Tata Global arm has bought the remaining 49% in Russian SuntyCo Holding.
  • US firm Santarus has sued Dr Reddy. It has accused Dr Reddy for infringing its patents on heartburn drug Zegerid.
  • Rupee at close: Rupee ends at 55.73 to the dollar vs 55.76 on Thursday.

 FII DERIVATIVES DATA

  • FII bought 12876 Contracts of NF, worth 279 cores with net OI increasing by 8208 contracts.
  • As Nifty Future was up by 0.35 points and OI has increased by 8208, FII have used the dip to buy into Index futures.
  • Nifty Spot closed at 5366 after making a high of 5400; Bulls were unable to close nifty above 5380 resistance zone which shows the supply pressure coming at higher levels.
  • Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5390 and 5400 (as  its swing high in Oct 2011) which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5328 and 5309 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5244 is not broken on closing basis.
  • Nifty August OI is at 2.56 cores with an unwinding  of 2.3 Lakh in OI, longs were liquidated by Retailers and HNI.As OI figure saw an unwinding of 1.19 lakhs i expect some good move tomorrow this is what we discussed on Thursday and on Friday we had a range of 72 points
  • Total F&O turnover was 1.25 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.4  lakh lowest in 2012.
  • 5300 CE also saw an addition of 2.79  lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs ,5400 CE saw an  addition  of 1.85  lakhs and total OI stands at 67 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 93 lakhs,  , 5000-5600 CE saw an addition of 2.6 lakhs in OI.
  • On Put side 5000 PE saw an unwinding of 1.4 lakhs, strong support of Nifty as total OI at 1.01 core.5000-5500 PE added total of 7 lakhs in OI.5300 PE added 5 lakh in OI and having the OI at 91 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in near term and immediate support in any pullback.5400 PE also added 7.2 Lakh in OI and FII were net buyers of Options yesterday so are they are buying puts to hedge their longs.
  • FII bought 308 cores and DII bought 40 cores in cash segment. FII has sold 161 cores in stock futures.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5387, Trend Changer at 5298 NIFTYF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
  • 5 DMA at 5356
  • 20 DMA at 5244
  • 50 DMA at 5212
  • 200 DMA at 5115
  • 5-Days Relative Strength Index at 72
  • 14-Days Relative Strength Index at 64. It Indicates Nifty Placed in BULLISH precinct.

NIFTY: RESISTANCE @ It has the First resistance close to the level 5377 and above the level marks the track point at 5400 later zooper levels at 5444 marks.

SUPPORT@ It has the first support close to the level of 5355 and below this level mark next support is seen at 5333 later dipping levels near 5288 marks.

NIFTY FUT MOMENTUM CALLS FOR 21 Aug’2012:

Buy Nifty August Future above 5400 Sl 5377 Tgt 5422-5444 {Or} Sell Nifty August Future below 5355 Sl 5377 Tgt 5333-5311.

Overseas Market View – Asian Markets, US Markets

Posted on by
  • Asian markets were trading mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.62% or 123.25 points at 20,086.20.
  • Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.64% or 58.17 points at 9,150.93.
  • Singapore’s Straits Times was up 0.14% or 4.37 points at 3,067.26.
  • South Korea’s Seoul Composite shed 0.51% or 9.91 points at 1,948.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.14% or 3.01 points at 2,109.19.
  • Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was flat at 7,495.14.
  • The US markets have their best session in nearly two weeks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterates her support for the ECB’s plans to fight the euro zone crisis and as the Dow component Cisco systems hiked its dividend 75%. The CBOE volatility index slipped to just above 14, a five-year low.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% or 85.33 points at 13250.11. Nasdaq Composite added 1.01% or 31.46 points at 3062.39. Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.71% or 9.98 points at 1415.51.
  • In economic data, weekly jobless claims rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, in line with expectations. Factory activity in the mid-atlantic area contracted for the fourth-straight month in August. And housing starts unexpectedly fell in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 746,000.
  • In the currency space, the euro gains versus the dollar, above 1.23 as Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterates her support for the ECB’s plans to fight the euro zone crisis.
  • In commodities, Brent crude prices at 3 month peak following weakness in dollar and comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
  • In the precious metals space, gold prices gain on further stimulus hopes.
  • Indian ADRs ended mixed on Thursday. In the IT space, Infosys was up 1.69% at USD 42.08, Patni was down 0.11% at USD 18.38 and Wipro was down 0.37% at USD 8.02.
  • In the Telecom space, Tata Communication was up 1.68% at USD 8.47 and MTNL was up 0.33% at USD 1.21. In the Banking space, HDFC Bank was up 0.74% at USD 35.27 and ICICI Bank was down 0.89% at USD 34.44.
  • In the other space, Tata Motors was up 1.93% at USD 21.15, Dr Reddys was up 1.43% at USD 29.73 and Sterlite was down 0.88% at USD 7.88.